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Goztep 2–0 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 10, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Metoğlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win49%1.98
Draw27%3.50
Konyaspor win24%4.15

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor −0.551%1.92
Goztep −0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.85
Over48%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Blaž Kramer · Konyaspor
11'🟨Rômulo · Goztep
13'🟨Malcom Bokele · Goztep
86'🟨Riechedly Bazoer · Konyaspor
90'🟨İsmail Köybaşı · Goztep
90'🟨Hamidou Keyta · Konyaspor
90'⚽ (pen)Rômulo · Goztep
90'⚽Kuryu Matsuki · Goztep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots12
5On target3
5Corners6
13Fouls9
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.28
box share (last 5)0.670.63
cards avg (last 5)2.202.80
coach days375.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGürsel Aksel Stadyumu
40.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.522.04
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.18
dominance (last 5)0.480.46
elo1413.731534.93
elo momentum (last 5)9.413.89
eye test v10.39-0.10
eye trend v10.17-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)51.2062.30
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.730.65
league points15.0020.00
league rank12.006.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.006.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4072.80
possession avg (last 5)42.4038.40
rest days8.737.00
scorer concentration0.250.29
season ppg1.501.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.60-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.8010.60
skill v1-0.79-0.74
solidity v1-0.69-0.98
sot against avg (last 5)6.005.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
state index-0.10-0.22
sterile dominance v1-1.63-1.53
threat rate (last 10)0.350.30
threat rate (last 3)0.400.28
threat rate (last 5)0.360.34
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.381.77
xg for avg (last 5)1.581.50