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Hatayspor 3–1 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Aydın

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor win41%2.33
Gaziantep win31%3.25
Draw28%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep −0.2551%1.90
Hatayspor −0.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.94
Under50%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi · Hatayspor
12'⚽Rui Pedro · Hatayspor
35'⚽Funsho Bamgboye · Hatayspor
45'⚽Deian Sorescu · Gaziantep
59'🟨Cyril Mandouki · Gaziantep
71'🟨Emre Taşdemir · Gaziantep
74'🟨Cengiz Demir · Hatayspor
81'🟥Bruno Viana · Gaziantep
90'⚽Carlos Strandberg · Hatayspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
16Shots10
6On target6
5Corners6
18Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHataysporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.39
box share (last 5)0.640.67
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
coach days69.00253.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMersin Stadyumu
congestion 21d
3.00
2.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.17
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.272.76
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.14
dominance (last 5)0.510.49
elo1379.581484.63
elo momentum (last 5)-28.5119.91
eye test v1-0.290.08
eye trend v10.200.02
first sub minute (last 10)57.4058.60
form points (last 5)1.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
keeper form v10.700.64
league points4.0012.00
league rank21.0020.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet5.005.00
matches since win12.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4074.80
possession avg (last 5)52.8045.00
rest days6.007.83
scorer concentration0.330.17
season ppg0.331.09
shot diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.4011.80
skill v10.19-0.41
solidity v1-0.19-0.21
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.804.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.60
squad age—31.06
state index-1.28-0.06
sterile dominance v10.20-0.52
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.401.62
xg for avg (last 5)1.281.35