← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 3, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Çakır
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 51% | 51% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
| Trabzonspor win | 23% | 23% | 4.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce +0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Trabzonspor +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Umut Bozok · Trabzonspor |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ozan Tufan · Trabzonspor |
| 42' | ⚽ | Fred · Fenerbahce |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stefano Denswil · Trabzonspor |
| 59' | 🟨 | Bright Osayi-Samuel · Fenerbahce |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Banza · Trabzonspor |
| 62' | 🟨 | Eren Elmalı · Trabzonspor |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Banza · Trabzonspor |
| 75' | 🟨 | Uğurcan Çakır · Trabzonspor |
| 75' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · Fenerbahce |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 9 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trabzonspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Papara Park |
| 🟨 |
| Simon Banza · Trabzonspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enis Destan · Trabzonspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · Fenerbahce |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sofyan Amrabat · Fenerbahce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 63.00 | 155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1622.86 | 1870.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.80 | -2.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.77 |
| league points | 15.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.77 | 29.64 |
| state index | 0.50 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.24 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.39 |