⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Eyupspor 2–0 Hatayspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Y. Kol

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eyupspor win57%1.68
Draw24%4.00
Hatayspor win19%5.49

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eyupspor −0.7552%1.88
Hatayspor −0.7548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.81
Under46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Mame Thiam · Eyupspor
24'🟨Rui Pedro · Hatayspor
32'🟨Samu Sáiz · Eyupspor
48'🟨Görkem Sağlam · Hatayspor
51'🟨Kerim Alıcı · Hatayspor
60'⚽Mame Thiam · Eyupspor
71'🟨Ahmed Kutucu · Eyupspor
72'🟨Berke Özer · Eyupspor
90'🟨Francisco Calvo · Hatayspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots15
4On target2
3Corners5
16Fouls16
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEyupsporHatayspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.27
box share (last 5)0.630.71
cards avg (last 5)0.801.60
coach days582.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
63.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.806.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.642.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.420.49
elo1535.361386.51
elo momentum (last 5)9.84-16.52
eye test v10.08-0.47
eye trend v1-0.160.39
first sub minute (last 10)62.8059.20
form points (last 5)8.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.180.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.90—
keeper form v10.790.73
league points17.004.00
league rank8.0021.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win2.0011.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6079.40
possession avg (last 5)52.2052.00
rest days5.968.10
scorer concentration0.290.33
season ppg1.550.36
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.0011.20
skill v10.070.13
solidity v1-0.350.19
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.20
state index-0.04-1.06
sterile dominance v10.500.40
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.25
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)—0.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.551.20
xg for avg (last 5)1.211.24