← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 20, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Metoğlu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 50% | 55% | 1.95 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Samsunspor win | 23% | 19% | 4.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor +0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Fenerbahce +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Filip Kostić · Fenerbahce |
| 14' | 🟨 | Olivier Ntcham · Samsunspor |
| 14' | 🟨 | Ľubomír Šatka · Samsunspor |
| 24' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · Fenerbahce |
| 40' | 🟨 | Fred · Fenerbahce |
| 48' | ⚽ | Carlo Holse · Samsunspor |
| 52' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Becão · Fenerbahce |
| 55' | 🟨 | Emre Kılınç · Samsunspor |
| 57' | 🟨 | Marc Bola · Samsunspor |
| 62' | ⚽ | Allan Saint-Maximin · Fenerbahce |
| 76' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Samsunspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu |
| 🟨 |
| Youssef Aït Bennasser · Samsunspor |
| 88' | ⚽ | Soner Aydoğdu · Samsunspor |
| 89' | 🟨 | İrfan Can Kahveci · Fenerbahce |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marius Mouandilmadji · Samsunspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Fenerbahce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 111.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1591.64 | 1875.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 80.88 | -9.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 14.13 | 16.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 0.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.71 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.00 | 28.79 |
| state index | 1.04 | 1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.87 |