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Besiktas 2–0 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 20, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Sağlam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win65%1.48
Draw21%4.75
Konyaspor win14%7.27

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor −1.2553%1.83
Besiktas −1.2547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.85
Under47%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽ (pen)Ciro Immobile · Besiktas
33'🟨Adil Demirbağ · Konyaspor
45'⚽Rafa Silva · Besiktas
50'🟨Rafa Silva · Besiktas
50'🟨Yusuf Erdoğan · Konyaspor
59'🟨Blaž Kramer · Konyaspor
60'🟨Jonas Svensson · Besiktas
90'🟨Melih Bostan · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots11
4On target3
9Corners5
13Fouls9
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.31
box share (last 5)0.640.68
cards avg (last 5)1.202.80
coach days141.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTüpraş Stadyumu
19.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.672.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.600.50
elo1624.621539.36
elo momentum (last 5)-13.658.25
eye test v10.42-0.21
eye trend v10.070.54
first sub minute (last 10)58.3057.30
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.551.07
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.770.68
league points17.0014.00
league rank5.008.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8074.80
possession avg (last 5)58.0039.80
rest days13.8814.10
scorer concentration0.270.30
season ppg2.431.40
shot diff avg (last 5)4.200.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.8010.00
skill v11.10-0.77
solidity v1-0.790.69
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.803.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
squad age29.85—
state index0.320.25
sterile dominance v10.76-1.22
threat rate (last 10)0.250.29
threat rate (last 3)0.270.38
threat rate (last 5)0.230.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.690.95
xg for avg (last 5)1.851.16