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Sivasspor 3–2 Hatayspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 20, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Türkmen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win43%2.28
Hatayspor win29%3.45
Draw29%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor −0.2550%1.95
Sivasspor −0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.78
Over46%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
36'🟨Lamine Diack · Hatayspor
43'⚽Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
45'⚽Rigoberto Rivas · Hatayspor
61'⚽Francisco Calvo · Hatayspor
73'⚽ (pen)Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
79'⚽Samba Camara · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots9
6On target3
8Corners7
2Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporHatayspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.27
box share (last 5)0.570.50
cards avg (last 5)2.602.80
coach days324.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu
49.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.406.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.262.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.14
dominance (last 5)0.440.47
elo1521.431401.95
elo momentum (last 5)-24.44-24.26
eye test v1-0.39-0.83
eye trend v1-0.09-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)54.3056.90
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.74
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.630.74
league points8.004.00
league rank18.0021.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win4.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2079.40
possession avg (last 5)44.0047.80
rest days14.9014.77
scorer concentration0.25—
season ppg0.890.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.409.80
skill v1-0.50-0.32
solidity v1-0.87-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.80
state index-0.47-1.05
sterile dominance v1-0.250.26
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.761.42
xg for avg (last 5)0.950.84