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Gaziantep 1–1 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 6, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Metoğlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win53%1.82
Draw25%3.91
Gaziantep win22%4.36

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep +0.7553%1.85
Besiktas +0.7547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.73
Under45%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽ (pen)Ciro Immobile · Besiktas
32'🟨Badou Ndiaye · Gaziantep
38'🟨Ciro Immobile · Besiktas
44'🟨Christophe Lungoyi · Gaziantep
45'🟨Enric Saborit · Gaziantep
55'🟨Emirhan Topçu · Besiktas
64'🟨Kacper Kozłowski · Gaziantep
90'⚽Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots13
5On target3
4Corners4
14Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.600.62
cards avg (last 5)3.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadyumu
coach days219.00127.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.004.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.403.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.408.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.273.74
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.12
dominance (last 5)0.460.63
elo1488.081621.64
elo momentum (last 5)-17.12-2.87
eye test v10.080.66
eye trend v1-0.12-0.37
first sub minute (last 10)60.6060.80
form points (last 5)1.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.771.49
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.640.71
league points4.0016.00
league rank21.005.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win6.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2083.60
possession avg (last 5)42.2061.40
rest days7.132.88
scorer concentration0.200.27
season ppg0.572.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.605.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.6013.60
skill v1-0.461.11
solidity v1-0.57-0.36
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.80
squad age31.0628.44
state index-0.670.21
sterile dominance v1-0.840.86
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.23
threat rate (last 5)0.300.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.431.47
xg for avg (last 5)1.311.69