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Goztep 3–2 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win56%1.74
Draw26%3.75
Sivasspor win19%5.29

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor −0.7550%1.94
Goztep −0.7550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.86
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Rômulo · Goztep
10'⚽Isaac Solet · Goztep
50'🟨Noah Sonko Sundberg · Sivasspor
55'⚽Uğur Çiftçi · Sivasspor
57'⚽Queensy Menig · Sivasspor
79'🟨Anthony Junior Dennis · Goztep
87'🟨Queensy Menig · Sivasspor
90'🟨Héliton · Goztep
90'🟨Rômulo · Goztep
90'⚽David Datro Fofana · Goztep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots10
4On target6
4Corners4
17Fouls6
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.30
box share (last 5)0.670.56
cards avg (last 5)3.003.20
coach days339.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGürsel Aksel Stadyumu
309.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.962.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.510.45
elo1399.511533.52
elo momentum (last 5)46.22-21.89
eye test v10.14-0.62
eye trend v10.37-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)48.3059.40
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.23
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
keeper form v10.700.67
league points9.008.00
league rank14.0017.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.6079.80
possession avg (last 5)38.6044.80
rest days7.007.83
scorer concentration0.300.33
season ppg1.501.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.809.80
skill v1-1.19-0.40
solidity v1-0.29-0.62
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.20
state index0.15-0.41
sterile dominance v1-1.82-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.290.30
threat rate (last 3)0.380.25
threat rate (last 5)0.350.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.551.70
xg for avg (last 5)1.310.89