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Eyupspor 3–2 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 29, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kardeşler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eyupspor win55%1.74
Draw25%3.80
Gaziantep win20%5.17

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep −0.7550%1.93
Eyupspor −0.7550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.88
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Ahmed Kutucu · Eyupspor
28'⚽Deian Sorescu · Gaziantep
37'🟨Bruno Viana · Gaziantep
41'🟨Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep
52'🟨Badou Ndiaye · Gaziantep
65'⚽Emre Akbaba · Eyupspor
75'🟨Ömürcan Artan · Gaziantep
78'🟨Jonjo Shelvey · Eyupspor
79'⚽Mame Thiam · Eyupspor
90'⚽Emre Taşdemir · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots11
5On target4
5Corners5
13Fouls8
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEyupsporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.35
box share (last 5)0.560.61
cards avg (last 5)2.603.00
coach days547.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
212.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.206.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)—2.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.500.41
elo1525.531464.72
elo momentum (last 5)21.87-27.12
eye test v10.77-0.40
eye trend v10.20-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)58.6762.20
form points (last 5)8.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)—1.78
keeper form v10.730.70
league points9.004.00
league rank12.0019.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win3.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0074.60
possession avg (last 5)48.8042.40
rest days6.835.83
scorer concentration0.38—
season ppg1.500.67
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.0011.60
skill v10.45-0.73
solidity v10.16-0.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.174.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.80
squad age—31.06
state index0.22-0.81
sterile dominance v1-0.12-0.51
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.310.25
threat rate (last 5)0.270.25
venue ppg (last 5)—1.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.181.21
xg for avg (last 5)1.801.05