← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Taşkınsoy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor win | 44% | 52% | 2.21 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| Rizespor win | 28% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Rizespor −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Nicolas Janvier · Alanyaspor |
| 38' | 🟨 | Loide Augusto · Alanyaspor |
| 40' | 🟨 | Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor |
| 48' | 🟨 | Taha Şahin · Rizespor |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ertuğrul Taşkıran · Alanyaspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Halil Ibrahim Pehlivan · Rizespor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rachid Ghezzal · Rizespor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alanyaspor | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| venue | GAIN Park Stadium |
| coach days | 332.00 | 485.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 4.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1560.83 | 1471.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.97 | -25.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| league points | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.16 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 0.82 |