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Samsunspor 4–3 Goztep

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Türkmen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Samsunspor win47%2.04
Draw29%3.40
Goztep win24%4.33

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep −0.553%1.86
Samsunspor −0.547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.67
Over42%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽ (og)Zeki Yavru · Goztep
28'⚽Marius Mouandilmadji · Samsunspor
41'⚽Rômulo · Goztep
50'⚽Juan Santos da Silva · Goztep
55'🟨Mateusz Lis · Goztep
56'🟨Malcom Bokele · Goztep
70'⚽Olivier Ntcham · Samsunspor
79'⚽Kingsley Schindler · Samsunspor
90'⚽Olivier Ntcham · Samsunspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
22Shots9
11On target4
6Corners3
6Fouls9
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSamsunsporGoztep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.32
box share (last 5)0.640.65
cards avg (last 5)1.802.80
coach days89.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSamsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu
332.00
congestion 21d4.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.800.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.132.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.05
dominance (last 5)0.540.55
elo1544.341404.32
elo momentum (last 5)49.4956.66
eye test v1-0.100.03
eye trend v10.120.33
first sub minute (last 10)56.6052.40
form points (last 5)12.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.99
keeper form v10.760.75
league points15.009.00
league rank4.0010.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2069.00
possession avg (last 5)47.6040.00
rest days5.964.83
scorer concentration0.290.25
season ppg2.141.80
shot diff avg (last 5)0.602.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.4013.00
skill v1-0.10-1.10
solidity v11.330.62
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.60
state index0.660.30
sterile dominance v1-0.26-1.64
threat rate (last 10)0.240.29
threat rate (last 3)0.270.38
threat rate (last 5)0.270.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.681.23
xg for avg (last 5)1.311.21