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Konyaspor 0–0 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Y. Kol

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win51%1.92
Draw28%3.50
Sivasspor win22%4.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor −0.551%1.93
Sivasspor −0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'🟨Alex Pritchard · Sivasspor
36'🟨Umut Nayir · Konyaspor
48'🟨Oğulcan Ülgün · Konyaspor
60'🟨Nikola Boranijašević · Konyaspor
84'🟨Samuel Moutoussamy · Sivasspor
88'🟨Yusuf Erdoğan · Konyaspor
88'🟨Murat Paluli · Sivasspor
90'🟨Melih Ibrahimoglu · Konyaspor
90'🟨Jan Biegański · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots9
5On target5
7Corners4
16Fouls13
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.30
box share (last 5)0.610.59
cards avg (last 5)1.203.60
coach days173.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu
295.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.413.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.10
dominance (last 5)0.480.44
elo1538.821552.39
elo momentum (last 5)-11.53-6.45
eye test v1-0.73-0.55
eye trend v10.05-0.39
first sub minute (last 10)61.0057.90
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.23
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
keeper form v10.680.77
league points10.007.00
league rank5.0012.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4077.00
possession avg (last 5)45.0038.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.500.40
season ppg1.431.40
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.2010.80
skill v1-0.88-0.97
solidity v10.82-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)2.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.40
state index-0.300.05
sterile dominance v1-0.51-1.00
threat rate (last 10)0.230.31
threat rate (last 3)0.190.26
threat rate (last 5)0.250.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.981.66
xg for avg (last 5)0.860.74