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Hatayspor 0–1 Bodrumspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 20, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Ü. Öztürk

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor win43%2.26
Draw30%3.20
Bodrumspor win27%3.79

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor −0.2551%1.91
Bodrumspor −0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.54
Over37%2.61

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Taulant Seferi · Bodrumspor
33'🟨Joelson Fernandes · Hatayspor
35'🟨Ondřej Čelůstka · Bodrumspor
45'🟨Musah Mohammed · Bodrumspor
54'🟨Ahmet Aslan · Bodrumspor
65'🟨Vincent Aboubakar · Hatayspor
69'🟨Diogo Sousa · Bodrumspor
72'🟨Cenk Şen · Bodrumspor
90'🟨Enes Ogruce · Bodrumspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots8
2On target1
9Corners7
11Fouls13
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHataysporBodrumspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.27
box share (last 5)0.530.55
cards avg (last 5)2.000.80
coach days19.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMersin Stadyumu
1085.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)0.71—
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.20
dominance (last 5)0.380.57
elo1408.091456.50
elo momentum (last 5)-16.40-31.22
eye test v1-1.18-0.22
eye trend v1-0.53-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)56.9051.60
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.79—
keeper form v1—0.65
league points3.003.00
league rank17.0019.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win7.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8071.40
possession avg (last 5)40.2044.20
rest days5.006.00
season ppg0.430.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.802.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.4011.60
skill v1-0.99-0.70
solidity v1-1.150.04
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.203.60
state index-0.84-0.70
sterile dominance v1-0.37-1.14
threat rate (last 10)0.280.32
threat rate (last 3)0.180.28
threat rate (last 5)0.220.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.60—
xg against avg (last 5)1.931.22
xg for avg (last 5)0.701.30