← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Thu, Sep 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Türkmen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor win | 60% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.32 | fair |
| Kayserispor win | 17% | 17% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Trabzonspor −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Aylton Boa Morte · Kayserispor |
| 12' | ⚽ | Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Kayserispor |
| 54' | 🟨 | Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor |
| 63' | ⚽ | Aylton Boa Morte · Kayserispor |
| 73' | 🟨 | Gökhan Sazdağı · Kayserispor |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mehdi Bourabia · Kayserispor |
| 87' | 🟨 | Gökhan Sazdağı · Kayserispor |
| 87' | 🟥 | Gökhan Sazdağı · Kayserispor |
| 88' | 🟨 | Duckens Nazon · Kayserispor |
| 89' | ⚽ | Umut Bozok · Trabzonspor |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 3 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trabzonspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Papara Park |
| ⚽ |
| Stefano Denswil · Trabzonspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 18.00 | 262.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1622.08 | 1480.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.45 | -13.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.72 |
| league points | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.13 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -0.04 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 29.15 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.45 |