← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Tonusluoğlu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 72% | 58% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 25% | 5.80 | value: +42% |
| Sivasspor win | 10% | 18% | 10.00 | value: +76% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas −1.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Sivasspor −1.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.59 |
| Under | 39% | 2.47 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · Besiktas |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · Besiktas |
| 41' | 🟨 | Murat Paluli · Sivasspor |
| 44' | 🟨 | Uğur Çiftçi · Sivasspor |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mutassim Al-Musrati · Besiktas |
| 72' | 🟨 | Milot Rashica · Besiktas |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ali Şaşal Vural · Sivasspor |
| 89' | ⚽ | Gedson Fernandes · Besiktas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emirhan Topçu · Besiktas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Noah Sonko Sundberg · Sivasspor |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Besiktas | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Tüpraş Stadyumu |
| 🟨 |
| Rey Manaj · Sivasspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 92.00 | 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1615.06 | 1540.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.27 | 15.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.79 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 3.03 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.56 |
| solidity v1 | -0.21 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 29.32 | 28.99 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.03 |