← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Aug 25, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Doman
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 56% | 69% | 1.72 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.06 | fair |
| Rizespor win | 20% | 12% | 4.77 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce +0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Rizespor +0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Fred · Fenerbahce |
| 15' | ⚽ | Fred · Fenerbahce |
| 29' | 🟨 | Husniddin Alikulov · Rizespor |
| 32' | 🟨 | Babajide David Akintola · Rizespor |
| 45' | 🟨 | Çağlar Söyüncü · Fenerbahce |
| 50' | 🟨 | Taha Şahin · Rizespor |
| 53' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · Fenerbahce |
| 60' | ⚽ | Fred · Fenerbahce |
| 64' | ⚽ | Fred · Fenerbahce |
| 66' | ⚽ (og) | Husniddin Alikulov · Fenerbahce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rizespor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Çaykur Didi Stadyumu |
| coach days | 451.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.52 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1513.57 | 1882.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.17 | 8.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 1.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | 0.71 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | 1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.20 |
| squad age | — | 29.88 |
| state index | 0.02 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 0.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 2.56 |