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Antalyaspor 3–2 Hatayspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Aug 25, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win38%2.58
Hatayspor win33%3.03
Draw30%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor +054%1.81
Hatayspor +046%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽ (pen)Carlos Strandberg · Hatayspor
32'⚽Carlos Strandberg · Hatayspor
35'🟨Abdulkadir Parmak · Hatayspor
47'🟨Cemali Sertel · Hatayspor
51'🟥Guy-Marcelin Kilama · Hatayspor
56'🟨Sander van de Streek · Antalyaspor
60'⚽Thalisson Kelven · Antalyaspor
64'🟨Thalisson Kelven · Antalyaspor
65'🟨Amar Gerxhaliu · Antalyaspor
66'⚽Moussa Djenepo · Antalyaspor
73'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
11Shots9
7On target5
10Corners2
14Fouls16
4Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporHatayspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.33
box share (last 5)0.530.62
cards avg (last 5)0.801.00
coach days237.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCorendon Airlines Park
Jakub Kałuziński · Antalyaspor
76'🟨Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi · Hatayspor
90'🟨Jonathan Okoronkwo · Hatayspor
90'🟨Armin Hodžić · Hatayspor
90'🟨Recep Burak Yılmaz · Hatayspor
90'⚽ (pen)Braian Samudio · Antalyaspor
116.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-6.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.808.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.802.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.631.20
elo1495.621426.21
elo momentum (last 5)-12.049.94
eye test v1-0.80-0.28
eye trend v10.16-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)51.3057.50
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.48
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.650.72
matches since blank1.0010.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8074.20
possession avg (last 5)49.6035.40
rest days7.006.03
season ppg0.500.50
skill v1-0.08-1.06
solidity v1-1.43-1.10
sot against avg (last 5)5.206.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.80
state index-0.33-0.59
sterile dominance v10.67-1.41
threat rate (last 10)0.190.31
threat rate (last 3)0.180.30
threat rate (last 5)0.190.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40
xg against avg (last 5)2.352.00
xg for avg (last 5)0.741.07