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Besiktas 4–2 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Aug 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Türkmen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win70%1.39
Draw19%5.25
Antalyaspor win12%8.48

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas −1.2553%1.85
Antalyaspor −1.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.71
Under44%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Braian Samudio · Antalyaspor
13'⚽Ciro Immobile · Besiktas
23'⚽Ciro Immobile · Besiktas
49'🟨Omar Colley · Besiktas
51'⚽Braian Samudio · Antalyaspor
55'🟨Semih Kılıçsoy · Besiktas
56'⚽Rafa Silva · Besiktas
63'🟥Güray Vural · Antalyaspor
67'🟨Arthur Masuaku · Besiktas
76'🟨Thalisson Kelven · Antalyaspor
89'🟨Mutassim Al-Musrati

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
17Shots7
9On target3
3Corners0
18Fouls15
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.32
box share (last 5)0.590.51
cards avg (last 5)0.200.40
coach days78.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTüpraş Stadyumu
· Besiktas
90'⚽Ernest Muçi · Besiktas
230.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.052.33
elo1613.821503.82
elo momentum (last 5)2.58-17.87
eye test v10.19-0.41
eye trend v1-0.210.27
first sub minute (last 10)50.5051.30
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.74
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.790.71
matches since blank10.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2084.20
possession avg (last 5)54.2052.60
rest days7.008.00
season ppg3.001.00
skill v10.480.26
solidity v1-0.31-1.38
sot against avg (last 5)5.006.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.60
squad age27.03—
state index0.48-0.36
sterile dominance v10.400.74
threat rate (last 10)0.280.20
threat rate (last 3)0.210.20
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.462.20
xg for avg (last 5)1.340.92