← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Aug 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Türkmen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 70% | 57% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 26% | 5.25 | value: +35% |
| Antalyaspor win | 12% | 17% | 8.48 | value: +45% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas −1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Antalyaspor −1.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Braian Samudio · Antalyaspor |
| 13' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · Besiktas |
| 23' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · Besiktas |
| 49' | 🟨 | Omar Colley · Besiktas |
| 51' | ⚽ | Braian Samudio · Antalyaspor |
| 55' | 🟨 | Semih Kılıçsoy · Besiktas |
| 56' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Besiktas |
| 63' | 🟥 | Güray Vural · Antalyaspor |
| 67' | 🟨 | Arthur Masuaku · Besiktas |
| 76' | 🟨 | Thalisson Kelven · Antalyaspor |
| 89' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Besiktas | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Tüpraş Stadyumu |
| 🟨 |
| Mutassim Al-Musrati · Besiktas |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ernest Muçi · Besiktas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 78.00 | 230.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1600.30 | 1497.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.20 | 8.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.34 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.90 | 29.36 |
| state index | 0.22 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 2.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 0.92 |