β SΓΌper Lig 2024-25 Β· Sun, Aug 11, 06:45 PM UTC Β· ref: O. ΓakΔ±r
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Alanyaspor win | 41% | 2.38 |
| Eyupspor win | 32% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.44 |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eyupspor β0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Alanyaspor β0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | KΔ±rbΔ±yΔ±k Holding Stadyumu |