β Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 Β· Sat, May 23, 06:45 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Ledda
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Antwerp win | 49% | 1.90 |
| Westerlo win | 26% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Westerlo β0.5 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Antwerp β0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand