← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Thu, May 21, 06:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Club Brugge win | 69% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.00 |
| Mechelen win | 12% | 7.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Club Brugge +1.5 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Mechelen +1.5 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 70% | 1.36 |
| Under | 30% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.