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RAAL La Louviere 4–1 Club Brugge

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 Β· Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: K. van Damme

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RAAL La Louviere win42%2.15
Club Brugge win31%2.90
Draw26%3.50

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge βˆ’0.2551%1.88
RAAL La Louviere βˆ’0.2549%1.93

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.53
Under39%2.40

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots13
6On target6
6Corners5
5Fouls11
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRAAL La LouviereClub Brugge
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.54
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.770.72
cards avg (last 5)1.400.40
coach days312.00250.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.007.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.17
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEasi Arena
1.00
-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.406.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.042.26
defensive leak (last 5)0.250.09
dominance (last 5)0.540.55
elo1462.281691.44
elo momentum (last 5)-70.2821.94
eye test v1-0.341.32
eye trend v1-0.56-0.08
form points (last 5)0.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.201.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.203.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.701.45
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.50
keeper form v10.550.69
league points41.00116.00
league rank14.001.00
matches since blank1.0017.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8076.40
possession avg (last 5)47.4050.20
rest days5.865.90
scorer concentration0.250.17
season ppg1.051.63
shot diff avg (last 5)2.003.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.0017.40
skill v1-0.110.44
solidity v1-0.570.58
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.406.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.678.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.207.00
squad ageβ€”22.92
state index-1.380.87
sterile dominance v1-0.32-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.300.37
threat rate (last 3)0.220.32
threat rate (last 5)0.270.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.402.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.741.05
xg for avg (last 5)1.472.16