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Club Brugge 2–3 Waregem

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 Β· Fri, May 1, 06:45 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Letellier

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win49%1.90
Waregem win26%3.60
Draw25%3.75

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge βˆ’0.551%1.85
Waregem βˆ’0.549%1.95

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.50
Under38%2.50

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots14
7On target7
6Corners7
13Fouls12
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeWaregem
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.750.60
cards avg (last 5)1.000.80
coach days242.00304.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d7.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.23
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueJan Breydel Stadion
1.00
-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.742.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.05
dominance (last 5)0.550.48
elo1694.181493.26
elo momentum (last 5)28.6460.95
eye test v11.150.28
eye trend v1-0.200.32
form points (last 5)12.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)3.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.491.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
keeper form v10.700.63
league points113.0046.00
league rank1.0012.00
matches since blank15.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8077.80
possession avg (last 5)46.6049.00
rest days5.305.06
scorer concentration0.170.35
season ppg1.641.21
shot diff avg (last 5)3.200.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.6011.80
skill v10.060.35
solidity v10.520.45
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)7.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.604.40
squad age22.92β€”
state index1.040.57
sterile dominance v1-0.900.00
threat rate (last 10)0.380.28
threat rate (last 3)0.310.28
threat rate (last 5)0.330.24
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.111.40
xg for avg (last 5)1.981.97