← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Antwerp win | 46% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Antwerp −0.5 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.