← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Fri, Feb 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Standard win | 39% | 2.35 |
| RAAL La Louviere win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RAAL La Louviere −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Standard −0.25 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Maurice Dufrasnestadion |