⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Westerlo 0–4 St Truiden

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 Β· Fri, Feb 6, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: W. De Cremer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo win40%2.30
St Truiden win34%2.70
Draw26%3.60

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo +055%1.73
St Truiden +045%2.08

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.53
Under39%2.40

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
8Shots17
1On target6
6Corners5
13Fouls12
3Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricWesterloSt Truiden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.670.59
cards avg (last 5)1.002.00
coach days220.00220.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.08
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueHet Kuipje
corner diff avg (last 5)
-1.40
0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.932.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.10
dominance (last 5)0.470.59
elo1553.011609.76
elo momentum (last 5)-11.318.53
eye test v10.100.34
eye trend v1-0.140.26
form points (last 5)7.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.35
keeper form v10.730.78
league points32.0054.00
league rank12.003.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0082.60
possession avg (last 5)53.0054.60
rest days6.106.00
scorer concentration0.210.32
season ppg1.282.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.803.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.8014.80
skill v10.170.65
solidity v10.151.17
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.60
state index-0.080.50
sterile dominance v10.300.24
threat rate (last 10)0.300.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.32
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.510.87
xg for avg (last 5)1.201.57