← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 18, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Charleroi win | 49% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
| Standard win | 23% | 4.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Standard −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Charleroi −0.5 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.65 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade du Pays de Charleroi |