← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 27, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Ledda
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 46% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Dender win | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dender −0.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Mechelen −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Therence Koudou · Mechelen |
| 40' | 🟨 | Bryan Goncalves · Dender |
| 45' | 🟨 | Roman Kvet · Dender |
| 52' | 🟨 | David Toševski · Dender |
| 56' | 🟨 | Mory Konate · Mechelen |
| 61' | ⚽ | David Toševski · Dender |
| 68' | 🟨 | Luc de Fougerolles · Dender |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luc de Fougerolles · Dender |
| 88' | 🟥 | Luc de Fougerolles · Dender |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gora Diouf · Mechelen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Achter de Kazerne |
| coach days | 179.00 | 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1581.69 | 1415.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.22 | -17.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| league points | 34.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.09 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.10 | -1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 2.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.34 |