← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Truiden win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
| Standard win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Truiden +0.25 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Standard +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Rihito Yamamoto · St Truiden |
| 20' | ⚽ | Casper Nielsen · Standard |
| 25' | 🟥 | Timothee Nkada · Standard |
| 27' | 🟨 | Robert-Jan Vanwesemael · St Truiden |
| 35' | ⚽ | Keisuke Goto · St Truiden |
| 63' | ⚽ | Keisuke Goto · St Truiden |
| 80' | 🟨 | Marco Ilaimaharitra · Standard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Maurice Dufrasnestadion |
| coach days | 178.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1501.54 | 1601.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.63 | 33.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 27.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 5.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 0.64 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.89 | — |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 2.18 |