← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dender win | 42% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
| Standard win | 28% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Standard −0.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Dender −0.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Ibe Hautekiet · Standard |
| 31' | 🟨 | Malcolm Viltard · Dender |
| 39' | 🟨 | Luc Marijnissen · Dender |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mohamed Berte · Dender |
| 56' | 🟨 | Luc de Fougerolles · Dender |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lucas Pirard · Standard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dender | Standard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Dender Football Complex |
| coach days | 172.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1425.13 | 1491.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.85 | 0.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| league points | 12.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.51 |
| solidity v1 | -1.64 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.89 |
| state index | -0.75 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.16 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.00 |