← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Lothar D'hondt, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 51% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.75 |
| St Truiden win | 24% | 3.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| St Truiden −0.5 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Rihito Yamamoto · St Truiden |
| 35' | 🟨 | Nathan De Cat · Anderlecht |
| 41' | 🟨 | Killian Sardella · Anderlecht |
| 51' | 🟨 | Adriano Bertaccini · Anderlecht |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Keisuke Goto · St Truiden |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nathan-Dylan Saliba · Anderlecht |
| 62' | 🟨 | Keisuke Goto · St Truiden |
| 67' | 🟨 | Visar Musliu · St Truiden |
| 68' | ⚽ | Nathan-Dylan Saliba · Anderlecht |
| 69' | 🟨 | Shogo Taniguchi · St Truiden |
| 71' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Anderlecht | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Lotto Park |
| 82' | 🟨 | Andrés Ferrari · St Truiden |
| coach days | 165.00 | 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1642.43 | 1600.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.48 | 42.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| league points | 35.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 1.44 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.61 | — |
| state index | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 2.47 |