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Club Brugge 2–3 Mechelen

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin van Damme, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win58%1.60
Draw23%4.10
Mechelen win20%4.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge −0.7554%1.75
Mechelen −0.7546%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.62
Under42%2.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Ian Struyf · Mechelen
35'⚽Fredrik Hammar · Mechelen
39'⚽Lion Lauberbach · Mechelen
47'⚽Flávio Nazinho · Club Brugge
49'⚽Gora Diouf · Mechelen
83'🟨Christiaan Ravych · Club Brugge
89'🟨Tommy St. Jago · Mechelen
90'⚽ (pen)Gary Magnee · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
17Shots12
7On target6
6Corners9
12Fouls15
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeMechelen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.780.68
cards avg (last 5)1.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydel Stadion
coach days103.00165.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d6.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.771.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.08
dominance (last 5)0.620.42
elo1567.901578.48
elo momentum (last 5)-30.452.58
eye test v1-0.24-0.82
eye trend v1-0.340.27
first sub minute (last 10)58.6059.10
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
keeper form v10.550.80
league points42.0031.00
league rank1.006.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0081.00
possession avg (last 5)59.2049.00
rest days6.806.10
scorer concentration0.200.28
season ppg1.241.63
shot diff avg (last 5)7.20-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)18.209.00
skill v10.40-0.03
solidity v10.41-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.60
squad age22.92—
state index-0.400.16
sterile dominance v10.690.52
threat rate (last 10)0.290.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.602.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.201.63
xg for avg (last 5)1.331.07