← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Laforge, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 42% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Mechelen win | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen +0.25 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Charleroi +0.25 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.83 |
| Over | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Therence Koudou · Mechelen |
| 29' | 🟨 | Ian Struyf · Mechelen |
| 35' | 🟨 | Kerim Mrabti · Mechelen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Myron Van Brederode · Mechelen |
| 84' | 🟨 | Aurelien Scheidler · Charleroi |
| 89' | 🟨 | Therence Koudou · Mechelen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Filip Szymczak · Charleroi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Achter de Kazerne |
| coach days | 159.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1570.91 | 1544.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.18 | -15.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| league points | 28.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 8.70 | 7.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.68 |