← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise win | 70% | 1.33 |
| Draw | 19% | 4.75 |
| Gent win | 11% | 8.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gent −1.5 | 52% | 1.83 |
| St. Gilloise −1.5 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under | 40% | 2.35 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Matisse Samoise · Gent |
| 70' | 🟨 | Kevin Mac Allister · St. Gilloise |
| 77' | ⚽ | Kevin Mac Allister · St. Gilloise |
| 86' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanga · Gent |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Gilloise | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.85 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Joseph Marien |
| coach days | 158.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1830.39 | 1516.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.11 | -25.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| league points | 39.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 5.99 | 5.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.91 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 1.04 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.13 |
| state index | 1.32 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.21 | 1.48 |