← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jan Boterberg, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Westerlo win | 40% | 2.30 |
| Dender win | 35% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dender +0.25 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Westerlo +0.25 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under | 40% | 2.35 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Bryan Goncalves · Dender |
| 40' | ⚽ | David Toševski · Dender |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Allahyar Sayyadmanesh · Westerlo |
| 56' | ⚽ | Bruny Nsimba · Dender |
| 64' | ⚽ | Nacho Ferri · Westerlo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Luc Marijnissen · Dender |
| 81' | 🟨 | Allahyar Sayyadmanesh · Westerlo |
| 84' | 🟨 | Noah Mbamba · Dender |
| 87' | 🟨 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · Dender |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dender | Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Dender Football Complex |
| coach days | 151.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1432.48 | 1539.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.97 | -28.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 2.01 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.47 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 0.65 |
| solidity v1 | -0.26 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.40 |