← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 38% | 2.38 |
| Standard win | 33% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Standard −0.25 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Mechelen −0.25 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | ⚽ | Dennis Eckert · Standard |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tobias Mohr · Standard |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kerim Mrabti · Mechelen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Standard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.59 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Achter de Kazerne |
| coach days | 150.00 | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1585.13 | 1488.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.32 | 4.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.72 |
| league points | 28.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 5.30 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.45 |
| solidity v1 | -1.11 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.89 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.17 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.05 |