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RAAL La Louviere 0–1 Anderlecht

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 Β· Sun, Nov 23, 05:30 PM UTC Β· ref: Jan Boterberg, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win48%1.90
Draw28%3.30
RAAL La Louviere win24%3.75

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RAAL La Louviere +0.551%1.85
Anderlecht +0.549%1.95

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.78
Over47%2.03

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Maxime Pau · RAAL La Louviere
43'🟨Nathan-Dylan Saliba · Anderlecht
51'🟨Djibril Lamego · RAAL La Louviere
60'🟨Thorgan Hazard · Anderlecht
64'🟨Ludwig Augustinsson · Anderlecht
90'⚽Ibrahim Kanate · Anderlecht

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots20
4On target7
5Corners7
14Fouls11
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRAAL La LouviereAnderlecht
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.28
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.05
box share (last 5)0.760.60
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEasi Arena
coach days145.00145.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.402.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.407.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.341.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.450.61
elo1529.361642.62
elo momentum (last 5)0.4921.66
eye test v1-1.090.29
eye trend v10.150.07
first sub minute (last 10)60.0055.10
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.30
keeper form v10.800.74
league points23.0029.00
league rank8.004.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.6079.60
possession avg (last 5)30.8049.40
rest days14.9114.21
scorer concentration0.250.21
season ppg1.441.81
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.405.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.6015.40
skill v1-1.890.24
solidity v10.421.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.404.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.204.40
squad ageβ€”28.61
state index0.090.59
sterile dominance v1-1.85-0.54
threat rate (last 10)0.290.28
threat rate (last 3)0.330.36
threat rate (last 5)0.300.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.151.06
xg for avg (last 5)0.871.58