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Antwerp 1–2 Dender

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Wesli De Cremer, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp win44%2.10
Dender win28%3.25
Draw28%3.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dender −0.555%1.73
Antwerp −0.545%2.08

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.88
Over49%1.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨Dennis Praet · Antwerp
45'🟨Roman Kvet · Dender
50'⚽David Toševski · Dender
57'🟨Noah Mbamba · Dender
61'🟨Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni​ · Dender
61'🟨Alireza Jahanbakhsh · Dender
76'⚽Boubakar Kouyaté · Antwerp
88'⚽Ragnar Oratmangoen · Dender

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots9
6On target2
5Corners3
15Fouls14
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntwerpDender
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.610.67
cards avg (last 5)2.401.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBosuilstadion
coach days145.00145.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.331.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.13
dominance (last 5)0.510.44
elo1557.421417.28
elo momentum (last 5)-21.97-10.55
eye test v10.040.78
eye trend v10.06-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)47.4055.40
form points (last 5)3.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v1—0.59
league points17.005.00
league rank14.0017.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet7.006.00
matches since win0.0018.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8075.60
possession avg (last 5)53.8042.20
rest days14.8015.80
scorer concentration0.200.29
season ppg1.060.31
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.2013.80
skill v10.09-0.08
solidity v10.55-0.68
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.40
state index-0.13-1.29
sterile dominance v10.26-1.12
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.180.33
threat rate (last 5)0.230.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.021.48
xg for avg (last 5)1.431.99