← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Bram Van Driessche, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 64% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.33 |
| Mechelen win | 15% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen −1.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Genk −1.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under | 35% | 2.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Mory Konate · Mechelen |
| 35' | ⚽ | José Marsà · Mechelen |
| 37' | 🟨 | Fredrik Hammar · Mechelen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nacho Miras · Mechelen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lion Lauberbach · Mechelen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gora Diouf · Mechelen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Cegeka Arena |
| coach days | 145.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1685.80 | 1570.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.59 | -4.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| league points | 23.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 13.79 | 13.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| solidity v1 | 0.41 | -1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.21 | — |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 2.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.23 |