← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 21, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Lawrence Visser, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 39% | 2.35 |
| Waregem win | 34% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Waregem −0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Standard −0.25 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.83 |
| Under | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟥 | Tochukwu Nnadi · Waregem |
| 24' | 🟨 | Nayel Mehssatou · Standard |
| 60' | 🟨 | Adnane Abid · Standard |
| 72' | 🟨 | Joseph Opoku · Waregem |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marco Ilaimaharitra · Standard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Maurice Dufrasnestadion |
| coach days | 143.00 | 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1491.15 | 1471.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.78 | 25.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 12.20 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.89 | — |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 2.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.29 |