← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 06:15 PM UTC · ref: Lawrence Visser, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise win | 63% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.33 |
| Mechelen win | 16% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise +1 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Mechelen +1 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Therence Koudou · Mechelen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ousseynou Niang · St. Gilloise |
| 55' | 🟨 | José Marsà · Mechelen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Anan Khalaili · St. Gilloise |
| 85' | ⚽ | Raul Florucz · St. Gilloise |
| 90' | 🟨 | Myron Van Brederode · Mechelen |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Myron Van Brederode · Mechelen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Achter de Kazerne |
| coach days | 131.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1564.86 | 1845.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.72 | -11.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | — |
| league points | 24.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.94 | 8.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -1.54 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.43 | 1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.96 |