← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Michiel Allaerts, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dender win | 40% | 2.35 |
| Waregem win | 33% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Waregem −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Dender −0.25 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Yannick Cappelle · Waregem |
| 13' | ⚽ | Bruny Nsimba · Dender |
| 18' | 🟨 | Benjamin Fredrick · Dender |
| 59' | ⚽ | Anosike Ementa · Waregem |
| 67' | ⚽ | Marley Aké · Waregem |
| 86' | ⚽ | Luc Marijnissen · Dender |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dender | Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Dender Football Complex |
| coach days | 129.00 | 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1417.44 | 1471.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.48 | 45.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 4.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 6.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.27 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.66 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -1.39 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 2.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.49 |