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RAAL La Louviere 2–1 Club Brugge

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 Β· Sun, Nov 2, 06:15 PM UTC Β· ref: Bert Put, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RAAL La Louviere win36%2.55
Club Brugge win35%2.63
Draw28%3.25

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RAAL La Louviere +051%1.85
Club Brugge +049%1.95

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.90
Under50%1.90

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Thierry Lutonda · RAAL La Louviere
27'🟨Edan Diop · Club Brugge
80'🟨Owen Maes · RAAL La Louviere
82'🟨Jordi Liongola · RAAL La Louviere
87'🟨Maxime Pau · RAAL La Louviere
90'⚽Emmanuel Kakou · Club Brugge
90'⚽Maxime Pau · RAAL La Louviere

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots14
3On target4
1Corners5
10Fouls13
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRAAL La LouviereClub Brugge
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.28
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.00
box share (last 5)0.730.74
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEasi Arena
coach days124.0062.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.00
congestion 21d2.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.402.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.293.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.05
dominance (last 5)0.490.49
elo1529.821653.99
elo momentum (last 5)10.2111.74
eye test v1-0.850.73
eye trend v10.05-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)61.7052.90
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.25
keeper form v10.830.67
league points20.0038.00
league rank10.001.00
matches since blank1.0010.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4078.60
possession avg (last 5)32.8049.80
rest days7.031.04
scorer concentration0.400.25
season ppg1.431.58
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.8015.20
skill v1-1.560.50
solidity v11.46-0.76
sot against avg (last 5)2.806.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.705.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.00
squad ageβ€”22.92
state index0.120.57
sterile dominance v1-1.60-0.83
threat rate (last 10)0.300.32
threat rate (last 3)0.350.34
threat rate (last 5)0.290.36
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.651.74
xg for avg (last 5)1.062.06