⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Anderlecht 3–1 Mechelen

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win61%1.53
Draw21%4.33
Mechelen win18%5.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen −1.2555%1.73
Anderlecht −1.2545%2.08

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.53
Under39%2.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Adriano Bertaccini · Anderlecht
20'⚽Mathis Servais · Mechelen
25'⚽— · Anderlecht
42'🟨Mihajlo Cvetković · Anderlecht
59'🟨Dikeni Salifou · Mechelen
60'⚽Nilson Angulo · Anderlecht

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
19Shots7
7On target1
9Corners2
14Fouls7
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnderlechtMechelen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.630.67
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLotto Park
coach days123.00123.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.17
corner diff avg (last 5)2.600.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.913.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.06
dominance (last 5)0.550.39
elo1609.901575.90
elo momentum (last 5)-11.64-2.06
eye test v10.15-0.24
eye trend v1-0.13-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)57.4053.20
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v1—0.80
league points20.0024.00
league rank8.004.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0079.00
possession avg (last 5)55.4047.80
rest days8.047.15
scorer concentration0.250.33
season ppg1.541.71
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.8010.60
skill v10.43-0.14
solidity v10.60-1.20
sot against avg (last 5)3.406.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.80
squad age28.61—
state index0.260.12
sterile dominance v10.330.19
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.270.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.132.09
xg for avg (last 5)1.431.17