← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Letellier, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Westerlo win | 52% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 |
| Dender win | 23% | 4.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Westerlo −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Dender −0.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.64 |
| Under | 41% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | David Toševski · Dender |
| 6' | 🟨 | Malcolm Viltard · Dender |
| 65' | ⚽ | Thomas Van den Keybus · Westerlo |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nacho Ferri · Westerlo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Fabio Ferraro · Dender |
| 86' | 🟨 | Eliot Bujupi · Westerlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Westerlo | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Het Kuipje |
| coach days | 116.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1568.29 | 1416.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.59 | -25.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -1.00 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | — |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.38 | -1.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.33 |