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Standard 1–0 Antwerp

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Mon, Oct 20, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Lothar D'hondt, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Standard win48%2.02
Draw28%3.41
Antwerp win23%4.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp −0.552%1.88
Standard −0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.94
Under50%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Rafiki Saïd · Standard
39'🟥Adnane Abid · Standard
41'🟨Christopher Scott · Antwerp
55'🟨Ibe Hautekiet · Standard
63'🟨Isaac Babadi · Antwerp
72'🟨Rafiki Saïd · Standard
86'🟨Zeno Van Den Bosch · Antwerp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots16
4On target3
4Corners5
19Fouls19
2Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStandardAntwerp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.540.61
cards avg (last 5)3.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMaurice Dufrasnestadion
coach days111.00111.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.02
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.342.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.410.47
elo1484.281579.40
elo momentum (last 5)5.54-48.67
eye test v1-0.91-0.13
eye trend v10.09-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)49.7055.30
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.750.73
league points11.0014.00
league rank14.0012.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6077.20
possession avg (last 5)47.8051.60
rest days15.0615.76
scorer concentration0.170.25
season ppg0.921.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.00-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.2013.40
skill v1-0.57-0.03
solidity v10.01-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.40
squad age24.89—
state index-0.27-0.58
sterile dominance v10.000.01
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.270.24
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.261.60
xg for avg (last 5)0.751.26