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Waregem 4–1 Gent

← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Eric Lambrechts, Belgium

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Waregem win36%2.67
Gent win36%2.71
Draw28%3.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Waregem +050%1.93
Gent +050%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.69
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Thomas Claes · Waregem
25'⚽ (og)Tiago Araújo · Waregem
41'⚽Benoit Nyssen · Waregem
58'🟨Jean-Kévin Duverne · Gent
60'🟨Tiago Araújo · Gent
78'⚽Omri Gandelman · Gent
81'⚽Jeppe Erenbjerg · Waregem

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
15Shots14
8On target5
3Corners12
7Fouls16
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWaregemGent
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.44
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.00
box share (last 5)0.660.60
cards avg (last 5)1.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueElindus Arena
coach days110.00110.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.806.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.002.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.832.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.06
dominance (last 5)0.490.39
elo1450.261571.17
elo momentum (last 5)73.1347.57
eye test v10.380.09
eye trend v10.05-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)68.4058.60
form points (last 5)13.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.10
keeper form v10.680.78
league points17.0018.00
league rank11.0010.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)53.4052.00
rest days15.0415.94
scorer concentration0.360.19
season ppg1.421.64
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-6.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.4010.40
skill v10.360.33
solidity v10.55-0.69
sot against avg (last 5)3.607.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.40
squad age—25.13
state index0.630.61
sterile dominance v10.390.61
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.18
threat rate (last 5)0.250.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.361.40
xg for avg (last 5)1.231.41