← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Laforge, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 44% | 2.27 |
| St Truiden win | 29% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht +0.25 | 51% | 1.97 |
| St Truiden +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.81 |
| Under | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Nathan De Cat · Anderlecht |
| 18' | ⚽ | Rihito Yamamoto · St Truiden |
| 19' | ⚽ | — · Anderlecht |
| 30' | 🟨 | Lucas Hey · Anderlecht |
| 44' | 🟨 | Nathan-Dylan Saliba · Anderlecht |
| 76' | ⚽ | Kaito Matsuzawa · St Truiden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrés Ferrari · St Truiden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Truiden | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Daio Wasabi Stayen |
| coach days | 110.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1534.24 | 1620.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.52 | 3.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 15.10 | 14.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -1.06 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 28.61 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.32 |