← Jupiler Pro League 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michiel Allaerts, Belgium
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dender win | 38% | 2.68 |
| Mechelen win | 34% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dender +0 | 53% | 1.93 |
| Mechelen +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Mory Konate · Mechelen |
| 62' | ⚽ | Myron Van Brederode · Mechelen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Kobe Cools · Dender |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lion Lauberbach · Mechelen |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruny Nsimba · Dender |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dender | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Dender Football Complex |
| coach days | 110.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1427.83 | 1574.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.71 | 1.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| league points | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.27 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.46 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.33 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 1.38 |